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财富杂志专访谷歌创始人:如何改变世界字体[ ] 颜色[ 绿 ]
分类:心情杂想 创建于:2008-05-08 被查看:596次来源: 未名交友 [回复]
2008年05月08日 10:58



谷歌创始人之一拉里里佩奇

  新浪科技

  导语:《财富》杂志记者安迪迪瑟威尔(Andy Serwer)近日在位于加利福尼亚州山景城的谷歌总部对该公司创始人之一拉里里佩奇进行了专访。佩奇在採访中就创新、变革、他所担心的问题以及为什么他是一个乐观主义者进行了阐述。

  起初,佩奇一直激励人们勇于冒险,这使得Gmail和谷歌地图等新应用功能被成功接纳。后来他又开始思考公司业务以外的领域。从能源到汽车,佩奇发现了一个充满机遇的世界。当然,他同时也发现了一个比较怯懦的世界,他担心在当前人类面临的最大挑战面前,没有足够多的人愿意付出巨大代价来改变这一切。

  问:你对最近的情况怎么看?

  答:如果你问经济学家推动经济增长的因素是什么,答案应该是农业机械化和大规模制造业等重要领域取得的巨大进步。然而问题是,我们的社会并不是围绕着这些来组织的,人们也并没在做可以产生这种影响的事情。

  我们已经忘记了不必依靠人力取水,这确实非常重要,因为行走数英里找到水并将水带回来并不是件有意思的事情。事实上我们能生产清洁饮用水的能力是基于一些基本技术:我们有能源吗?我们能制造东西吗?我的观点是人们经常不按这种方式思考。

  现在的情况好像是这样,“我们只是这个世界的俘虏,如果有什么发生,就让它发生吧。”然而事实并非如此。人们是否在努力生产清洁能源、提高运输能力、改进网络性能确实非常重要,因为少数人就能产生巨大影响。

  问:怎样才能增加做这种事情的人数呢?

  答:具体要求去做这件事会有很多障碍。例如,2004年在我们的第一封创始人信函中,我们讨论了进行新一轮创新将面临的风险等问题。我们当时说,今后很长一段时间内,我们所做的事情能可以获得10亿美元回报的可能性只有10%。我们不会在这方面投入很多人力,因此90%的人都在做其他事情。这样就不会面临巨大风险。如果你想知道我们的新特色来自哪里,我告诉你它们来源于那些风险更高的投资。

  甚至当谷歌开始运营的时候,我想我们可能会失败。为此,我们差点放弃了这个行业。我们之所以敢经营谷歌,是因为斯坦福大学曾经说过:“如果你们没有成功,还可以回来完成你们的博士学位。”这或许就是谷歌取得成功的一个决定性因素。否则我们都不清楚自己是否会干这一行。因为当时我们的内心充满了危机感。这种危机感并不是我们担心自己会饿肚子或找不到工作,也不是担心过不上好生活或其他事情。而是面对可能的挫折和全新的工作,会产生恐惧心理。要想取得成功,你就必须克服这一切。

  问:有没有能促进创新并将它用于社会、政府或公司的机制呢?

  答:当然有。看看硅谷,在这方面它就走在了世界前面。在这里,如果你想冒险做一些事情,将会有人给你提供大量资金,并有很多人鼓励你。我不知道如果我们身处不同的环境中,是否还会做这些颇具风险的事情。

  问:你一边说这是个问题,另一边又说这个问题正在解决。

  答:我从不认为这是个非黑即白的选择题。我们面临的问题是,有多少人在从事推动经济增长或提高人类生活质量的工作?美国每年有4万人死于车轮之下,谁会努力把这个数字缩小为零或者非常非常小?现在确实有人在为之努力。

  问:他们怎么做呢?

  答:他们在努力使汽车实现自动化。大家知道一些汽车已经採用了这项技术。英菲尼迪(Infiniti)刚刚推出一款新车,当你驶出车道时,这款车能将你送回车道。脱离车道是导致交通事故的一个主要因素。这项工作就是在拯救生命,而且这项技术并不太昂贵,但是愿意从事这个行业的人非常少。

  问:为什么会这样?

  答:说实话,我也有点睏惑。但是从我自己在谷歌获得的经验来看,要想让一个人从事这种工作相当困难,因为他们总感觉这是在冒个人风险。而且人们也没接受过这方面的正确训练。如果你说你想让车实现自动化,达到拯救生命的目的,你是无法在任何专门学科中学到你要从事这项工作所需的知识和技术的。我之所以清楚这一点,是因为1995年当我还是个博士生时,我就对汽车自动化工作非常感兴趣。

  问:这是因为人们不愿意冒险吗?

  答:人们不愿意冒险是部分原因,但是我认为这可以通过教育、环境和基础设施来克服。我在这方面的经验是,当人们想干一番大事时,他们开始会更担心失败。但是所有有趣的事情都会产生巨大的价值。而且在这些项目中,你将和最优秀的人一起并肩奋战,将会感觉非常有意思。他们并不是真的在冒险,但是他们感觉就像在冒险。

  问:作为一家上市公司,你要对股东负责。那么当你开始启动资金做特定投资时,你是怎么看待这种责任的?

  答:在实践中这根本不是个问题。我一直再三告诉整个公司的员工,我希望他们从事人工智能的研究工作,然而最后我们只有5个人在从事这方面的工作。你猜为什么?这不是费用问题。部分原因是我们常常说的70/20/10,即70%的资源用于我们的核心产业,10%用于能源等不相关的项目上(另外20%用于接近核心产业的项目上)。事实上,即使是10%也是努力争取来的。人们可能认为我们在浪费钱。然而正是那10%的投入才导致所有新产品诞生。

  问:与传统的财富500强企业相比,谷歌这种新兴企业做出这种改变不是更容易吗?

  答:我觉得,很多大型机构的领导者认为这种改变是不可能的。但是如果你回过头看看历史,就会发现一切都在变化。如果你的企业处于静止状态,说明这个企业可能有问题。不信就看看汽车产业:日本花了很长时间才说服人们相信日本汽车也很可靠。然后他们不断缩短推出新车的周期,原来他们推出一款新车需要5年时间,现在已经缩短到1到2年。这是个巨大的改变。

  另外还有像摩尔定律(大约每两年芯片上的晶体管数量翻一番)一样的变化。人们认为摩尔定律是对已经发生的事情的描述。然而,这个定律确实在促使人们做正确的事情。每个人都在按照这个定律行事,以便尽快让产品变得更好。

  问:要是这么说,如果摩尔定律适用于其他行业或产品时,人们就会採取相应的组织方式达到这一目的吗?

  答:确实如此。不同的事情有不同的解决办法。显然汽车行业就不能利用摩尔定律,因为你不能只传达信息,不付出实际行动,毕竟汽车行业要受到物质的限制。

  问:你还有没有其他具有创新性的领导层能解决实际问题的例子?

  答:我认为很多领域都是这样。你可以调查一下,有哪些企业在过去50年内没有发生过重大变化?我们一直在研究地热能,你应该能想到在这里或世界几乎所有地方的地下几英里深处,由于存在地热,都会非常热。那么挖个深洞引出地热会有多困难呢?事实上我们已经在地面上挖了很长时间的洞,只是大部分都是为了获得石油,因为石油很昂贵。如果你想引出地热,将要挖一个较大的洞。现在还没研发出用来提取地热的技术。不过我认为这项技术成为现实的可能性非常大。

  太阳能是我们一直从事的另一个领域,这种能源的数量大得惊人。在南加州或内华达州,在平均日照时间下,每平方英里地面每天可以产生800兆瓦特太阳能。这是个相当大的数目。要知道一座核电站才有大约2000兆瓦特。美国需要利用1000平方英里土地为整个国家提供电能。

  你可能会说:“我怎样才能产生这些能量呢?”当然你可以买太阳能电池。问题是,根据现在的太阳能价格,你需要投入数万亿美元才能生产出可供整个美国使用的电能。这时你可能会说:“那么镜子的价格是多少?”事实上你可以买些玻璃和镜子复盖在建筑物或其他物体表面,降低成本。全世界在利用这些可用资源方面都做得不够好。作为上流社会,我们面临的较大问题是没有合理利用可用资源。

  问:那么你认为地热和太阳能可以解决能源问题吗?

  答:可以。或许其中任何一种方式都足以产生可以满足我们需要的所有能量。然而现在从事这项工作还没有规律可循。你从中能发现巨大的利润、拒绝风险的行为,也能看到缺乏创造性的一面。但这非常正常,就像当初山姆姆沃尔顿在小镇上建大超市时一样,人们都认为他疯了。几乎每个人在产生一个创新性想法或取得巨大成功之前,人们首先都会说他们一定是疯了。

  问:谁应该负责让这种变化产生呢?是谷歌?政府?斯坦福大学?还是Kleiner Perkins(全美最大的风险投资基金机构)公司?

  答:我认为这是世界上每一个希望进步的人的责任。假设现在全世界有1万人在从事这些工作,如果我们能发动10万人加入这项工作,我们就能取得是以前的10倍的进步速度。然后你将它跟埃克森美孚、雪佛龙以及康菲石油公司的工程师人数相比,这些公司为了获得更多石油,僱用了多少工程师,全世界又在这方面投入了多少科技力量,这样巨大的投入显然与产出不成正比。

  问:你认为要推动这种变革需要什么样的背景?

  答:我认为应该有一个工程教育体系,以便对其他的替代方法进行评估。例如,燃料电池是否行得通?就这个问题,你需要有一套系统的工程与科学教育体系,传统教育不存在这些体系。因此我没受过这样的教育。实际上,我接受的是电脑工程师学教育。所以我瞭解如何制造电脑和软件。但我还自学了很多其他东西。如果你观察一个具有较高影响力的人,会发现他们都拥有非常渊博的知识,而且他们通常不曾接受过狭义的专业教育。

  此外,你还需要一些领导技能。你一定不想成为特斯拉。他是一位最伟大的发明家,但悲哀的是,他不能让他的研究成果实现商业化,因此很少得到资助。所以你更想成为爱迪生。即使你发明了一样东西,也不一定就肯定能帮助别人。实际上,你必须让它融入社会,通过生产来赚钱,从而为你的发明积累资本。

  问:你会有意僱用这样看待这些问题的人吗?

  答:不会,因为这种人实际上并不存在,你不能聘用他们。人们通常都在相关领域有自己的事业,而且表现相当出色。一些风险投资者总是被迫用更全面的方式评价事物的价值,这是好事,但他们仍然会出错。以清洁能源的风险投资为例。有两方面原因导致这方面的投资出现,一个是当前石油价格持续上升,另一个原因则是全球环境恶化。但是风险投资家考虑的最多的还是石油价格不断上升。

  可是你再想想,现在大部分资金都流入电力生产公司。电价主要由原煤价格来定,这种情况到现在还没改变。因此我们现在面临的问题是,为什么我们没有在10年前进行这方面的投资?这显然是一个巨大的错误。油价持续上涨是一个原因,但是它并不能很好地解释为什么我们没有更早地投资清洁能源。

  问:与三年前相比,你对未来的乐观程度是上升了还是是下降了?

  答:与三年前相比我对未来更加乐观,因为现在我们已经对这些问题有了更深的瞭解,有更多人对这些问题产生不同程度地认识。贫穷、全球气候变暖、交通事故致死等都是我们担忧的问题。安全、子女待遇问题以及健康和住房问题等,则是我们达到基本幸福水平的关键因素。我认为我们现在帮助世界上更多的人获得这些东西的能力正在不断提高。(杨琳)


※ 来源: 未名交友 http://www.JiaoYou8.com ※
nice_partner回复于:2008-05-10 22:08:59 [回复]

Good points. Thanks P_W!

PA_Walker回复于:2008-05-10 15:57:08 [回复]

Thanks to N_P for posting yet again another GREAT contents!!!

But I could not read the damn thing in one sitting and had to seriously ask myself what's wrong.

So I got the original and voila! I had a much smoother reading.

My conclusion: although some fine folks did a nice job of transalation, the work is not optimal in a lot of smaller areas. and those smaller areas are exactly what make reading plus thinking coherent, (or not)

The Chinese version of the first sentence "As president of Google, Larry Page has pushed HIS PEOPLE to take risks that have led to hot new applications like Gmail and Google Maps. LATELY he has been thinking far outside the walls " stopped me dead in track.

"his people" NEEDS to be translated to "Shou Xia,  or Bu Xia", I would not and could not understand why he would do anything to "Ren Men" which means all of the public. so I had trouble getting its meaning. "Lately" is a very important word and it MUST be "Zui Jin, or Jin Lai". the Chinese version led people to think "After which, or ...Since", completely wrong in chronology and drastically reduced the newsworthiness of this great piece. (as if what's being talked about is related more to the past, than CURRENT)

Translators may think these are minor. in fact, they are anything but.

I am here to thank Partner for this lead, at the same time to steer everyone to its original writing, which is clear, correct and most importantly, makes a lot more sense.

PA_Walker回复于:2008-05-10 15:56:28 [回复]
By Andy Serwer, managing editor

(Fortune Magazine) -- As president of Google, Larry Page has pushed his people to take risks that have led to hot new applications like Gmail and Google Maps. Lately he has been thinking far outside the walls of his company. Page sees a world of opportunity - in areas ranging from energy to safer cars. But he also sees a world of timidity; not enough people, he worries, are willing to place the big bets that could make a difference in meeting humanity's biggest challenges.

In these edited excerpts from an interview with Fortune managing editor Andy Serwer at Google's (GOOG, Fortune 500) headquarters in Mountain View, Calif., Page offers his views on innovation, change, fear - and why he is, all things considered, an optimist.

What are you thinking about these days?

If you ask an economist what's driven economic growth, it's been major advances in things that mattered - the mechanization of farming, mass manufacturing, things like that. The problem is, our society is not organized around doing that. People are not working on things that could have that kind of influence. We forget that it really does matter that we don't have to carry our water; it's not that much fun to walk miles and miles to try to find water and then carry it back under human power. And our ability to generate clean, accessible water is based on basic technologies: Do we have energy? Can we make things? My argument is that people aren't thinking that way.

Instead, it's sort of like "We are captives of the world, and whatever happens, happens." That's not the case at all. It really matters whether people are working on generating clean energy or improving transportation or making the Internet work better and all those things. And small groups of people can have a really huge impact.

How can we increase the number of people doing such work?

There are a number of barriers in place. Let me give an example. In our first founders' letter in 2004, we talked about the risk profile with respect to doing new innovations. We said we would do some things that would have only a 10鋒ance of making $1 billion over the long term. But we don't put many people on those things; 90%work on everything else. So that's not a big risk. And if you look at where many of our new features come from, it's from these riskier investments.

Even when we started Google, we thought, "Oh, we might fail," and we almost didn't do it. The reason we started is that Stanford said, "You guys can come back and finish your Ph.D.s if you don't succeed." Probably that one decision caused Google to be created. It's not clear we would have done it otherwise. We had all this internal risk we had just invented. It's not that we were going to starve or not get jobs or not have a good life or whatever, but you have this fear of failing and of doing something new, which is very natural. In order to do stuff that matters, you need to overcome that.

Are there mechanisms that society, government, or companies can put into place?

Absolutely - look at Silicon Valley, which has been the premier place in the world to do things like that. There's been a lot of money available and a lot of people encouraging other people to take risks. I don't know that we would have done it had we been in a different environment.

On the one hand you're saying it's a problem. On the other, you're saying it's being done.

I don't think it's black-and-white like that. The question is, How many people are working on things that can move the needle on the economy or on people's quality of life? Look, 40,000 people a year are killed in the U.S. in auto accidents. Who's going to make that number zero or very, very small? There are people working on it.

Larry Page (pg. 2)

By Andy Serwer, managing editor

What are they doing?

Working on making cars automated. You can already see the technology going into some cars. Infiniti just released a car that will kick you back in if you are driving out of the lane, which is a large source of accidents. So you're saving lives, and the technology is not that costly. But the number of people willing to work on stuff like that is very, very, very small.

Why is that?

Honestly, I'm a little baffled. But my own experience within Google is that it's hard to get people to work on those kinds of things because of the personal risk they feel they're taking. Also, people don't have the right training. If you say you want to automate cars and save people's lives, the skills you need for that aren't taught in any particular discipline. I know - I was interested in working on automating cars when I was a Ph.D. student in 1995.

Is the problem that people are risk-averse?

That's part of the problem, but I think that can be overcome with education and environment and infrastructure. My experience is that when people are trying to do ambitious things, they're all worried about failing when they start. But all sorts of interesting things spin out that are of huge economic value. Also, in these kinds of projects, you get to work with the best people and have a very interesting time. They're not really taking a risk, but they feel like they are.

As a public company, you have an obligation to shareholders. How does that come into play when you start designating resources to speculative projects?

In practice that's not an issue. I've told the whole company repeatedly I want people to work on artificial intelligence - so we end up with five people working on it. Guess what? That's not a major expense. There's a reason we talk about 70/20/10, where 700f our resources are spent in our core business and 10 0.000000e-01nd up in unrelated projects, like energy or whatever. [The other 20 2.27754e-319oes to projects adjacent to the core business.] Actually, it's a struggle to get it to even be 10%People might think we're wasting money or whatever. But that's where all our new stuff has come from.

Isn't this easier to do at a place like Google than, say, at older Fortune 500 companies?

Many leaders of big organizations, I think, don't believe that change is possible. But if you look at history, things do change, and if your business is static, you're likely to have issues. Look at the auto industry: It took the Japanese to convince people you can have a reliable car. Then they started pushing the product cycles shorter and shorter. Instead of making a car in five years, they made them in one year or two years. That's a big change.

And then there are things like Moore's Law [that the number of transistors on a chip will double about every two years]. People think Moore's Law is a description of what happened. But Moore's Law actually caused people to do the right thing. Everyone was organized about it - making things better quickly.

So if there were Moore's Laws applicable to other businesses or products, people would organize to fulfill that point?

Yes, yes. Different things get solved for different reasons. Obviously you're not going to get Moore's Law performance for cars - you're not just moving information around. With cars, you have physical constraints.

Do you have other examples where innovative leadership could move the needle?

I think there are a lot of areas. You can be a bit of a detective and ask, What are the industries where things haven't changed much in 50 years? We've been looking a little at geothermal power. And you start thinking about it, and you say, Well, a couple of miles under this spot or almost any other place in the world, it's pretty darn hot. How hard should it be to dig a really deep hole? We've been drilling for a long time, mostly for oil - and oil's expensive. If you want to move heat around, you need bigger holes. The technology just hasn't been developed for extracting heat. I imagine there's pretty good odds that's possible.

Solar thermal's another area we've been working on; the numbers there are just astounding. In Southern California or Nevada, on a day with an average amount of sun, you can generate 800 megawatts on one square mile. And 800 megawatts is actually a lot. A nuclear plant is about 2,000 megawatts.

The amount of land that's required to power the entire U.S. with electricity is something like 100 miles by 100 miles. So you say, "What do I need to do to generate that power?" You could buy solar cells. The problem is, at today's solar prices you'd need trillions of dollars to generate all the electricity in the U.S. Then you say, "Well, how much do mirrors cost?" And it turns out you can buy pieces of glass and a mirror and you can cover those areas for not that much money. Somehow the world is not doing a good job of making this stuff available. As a society, on the larger questions we have, we're not making reasonable progress.

Larry Page (pg. 3)

By Andy Serwer, managing editor

So you think that geothermal and solar thermal could solve our energy problems?

Yeah, probably either one could generate all the energy we need. There's no discipline to actually do this stuff, and you can also see this vested interest, risk-averse behavior, plus a lack of creativity. It sort of conspires. It's also a timeliness thing; everyone said Sam Walton was crazy to build big stores in small towns. Almost everyone who has had an idea that's somewhat revolutionary or wildly successful was first told they're insane.

Whose obligation is it to make this kind of change happen? Is it Google's? The government's? Stanford's? Kleiner Perkins'?

I think it's everybody who cares about making progress in the world. Let's say there are 10,000 people working on these things. If we make that 100,000, we'll probably get 10 times the progress.

And then you compare it with the number of engineers at Exxon (XOM, Fortune 500) and Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) and ConocoPhillips (COP, Fortune 500) who are trying to squeeze the last drop of oil out of somewhere, and all the science brainpower that's going to that. It's totally disproportionate to the return that they could get elsewhere.

What kind of background do you think is required to push these kinds of changes?

I think you need an engineering education where you can evaluate the alternatives. For example, are fuel cells a reasonable way to go or not? For that, you need a pretty general engineering and scientific education, which is not traditionally what happens. That's not how I was trained. I was trained as a computer engineer. So I understand how to build computers, how to make software. I've learned on my own a lot of other things. If you look at the people who have high impact, they have pretty general knowledge. They don't have a really narrowly focused education.

You also need some leadership skills. You don't want to be Tesla. He was one of the greatest inventors, but it's a sad, sad story. He couldn't commercialize anything, he could barely fund his own research. You'd want to be more like Edison. If you invent something, that doesn't necessarily help anybody. You've got to actually get it into the world; you've got to produce, make money doing it so you can fund it.

Are you consciously hiring people who can look at these issues?

Those people don't really exist. You can't hire them. People usually have careers where they stay in pretty fixed areas.

Some of the VCs are forced to be a little more general in how they evaluate things, and that's been good. But they still go wrong. Look at VC investment in clean energy. What caused that to happen was two things: the price of oil going up and global warning. It's mostly the price of oil going up.

But think about it. Most of the money is going into companies that will produce electricity - and the price of electricity is based on the price of coal, which hasn't changed. So the question is, Why didn't we do all this investment 10 years ago? That was a huge mistake. It's obviously easier if oil's more expensive, but there's no particularly good reason we didn't do a lot of it sooner.

Are you more or less optimistic about the future than you were three years ago?

I'm hugely more optimistic because now we have a conceptualization of the problems that makes some degree of sense to a fair number of people. Look at the things we worry about - poverty, global warming, people dying in accidents. And look at the things that drive people's basic level of happiness - safety and opportunity for their kids, plus basic things like health and shelter. I think our ability to achieve these things on a large scale for many people in the world is improving.

Jia Lynn Yang contributed to this article. To top of page

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